Carmel Fisher
Feb 27, 2025
Natural Products Sector Poised for Disruption
The Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) and retail ecosystem is a complex and evolving landscape with significant implications for investors. With Natural Products ExpoWest approaching, it's worth examining current trends, market capitalization impacts, and future directions.
Current State of CPG and Retail
The CPG industry encompasses everyday consumer products with relatively short lifespans and regular replacement cycles. Considered the economic backbone of the nation, the sector employs 22.3 million people, roughly three times the population of New York City.
This $2+ trillion market in the US has been undergoing significant transformation driven by:
Changing consumer preferences toward natural, sustainable, and health-conscious products
Evolving retail distribution channels with e-commerce growth
Supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures
Consolidation among established players and emergence of nimble DTC brands
Regulatory Environment and Kennedy's Influence
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s position as Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Trump administration bears significant implications for the natural products industry. Kennedy, known for his advocacy around food transparency and skepticism of certain agricultural practices, has indicated plans to push for stricter labeling requirements for GMOs, increased scrutiny of food additives, and potential rollbacks of certain FDA policies that he views as too industry-friendly.
His appointment has created both opportunity and uncertainty within the natural products sector, with some companies positioned to benefit from stricter ingredient standards while others may face increased compliance costs.
Investors attending ExpoWest should pay close attention to panel discussions addressing anticipated regulatory shifts, as Kennedy's influence could rapidly accelerate market share gains for brands already aligned with his clean food philosophy.
According to Gardner, an FDA Law Firm,
Food manufacturers and dietary supplement companies are likely to see tighter enforcement of food additives and food safety standards. For companies navigating these regulatory waters, it will be essential to stay informed about potential policy shifts under Kennedy’s leadership. His history of advocating for heightened safety protocols and more stringent regulatory measures suggests that companies may need to strengthen their QMS and compliance programs in anticipation of increased scrutiny.
Why Natural Products #ExpoWest Matters
Natural Products ExpoWest is one of the most significant trade shows in the natural, organic, and healthy products industry.
The upcoming event will showcase:
Emerging brands that may become acquisition targets for larger CPG companies
Innovation trends that signal where consumer preferences are heading
Early investment opportunities before brands reach mainstream distribution
Sustainability initiatives that may reshape manufacturing and packaging
And The Harvest Podcast will be there to cover it all... and bring you insights form the leading brands, innovators and industry experts.
Investment Implications and Market Cap Considerations 📈
The CPG landscape presents distinct market capitalization implications:
Large Cap CPG Companies: Traditional players (P&G: NYSE:PG), Unilever NASDAQ: UN, Nestlé: NESN.SW) are adapting through acquisition, reformulation, and sustainability initiatives to maintain market relevance
Mid Cap Growth Opportunities: Companies successfully navigating the natural/organic transition often experience premium valuations
Small Cap/Venture: Early-stage natural product companies showcased at ExpoWest represent higher-risk, higher-reward opportunities
Future Trends to Monitor 🔮
Several trends warrant close investor attention:
Functional Foods and Beverages: Products with specific health benefits beyond basic nutrition
Sustainable Packaging Innovation: Solutions addressing plastic reduction and circular economy
Alternative Proteins: Plant-based and cellular agriculture advancements
Personalized Nutrition: Technology enabling customized food and supplement solutions
Transparent Supply Chains: Blockchain and other technologies enabling full traceability
Why Investors Should Pay Attention💡
The natural products segment continues to outpace conventional CPG growth by 2-3x.
This creates:
Acquisition opportunities as established players buy innovation rather than building it
Premium valuations for companies successfully navigating the transition to natural/sustainable
Disruption risks for companies slow to adapt to changing consumer preferences
ESG investment alignment as sustainable practices become business imperatives
For investors attending Natural Products ExpoWest, it will be critical to identify which emerging trends have staying power versus those that may be fads, and which companies are positioned to scale successfully into mainstream channels.
Follow our podcast page on YOUTUBE to get all the juicy insights first!
Some of our favorite brands we're looking forward to reviewing... American brands, Built Bar, Chobani, Whole Foods, Sprouts, Canada-based Daiya, and many, many more up-and-coming disruptors...
Sources:
$2+ trillion market in the USÂ
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s position as Secretary of Health and Human Services